Trading Apologist
The Weekly Market Digest · Sunday, August 23, 2026
Hi everyone,
I hope you had a good weekend and got some time to step away from the screens. Before the next trading week gets going, I want to take a quick look back at everything we covered over the past week.
The week in brief
It was a busy week on a lot of fronts. On the earnings side, twelve companies reported and every single one beat expectations, a perfect hundred percent beat rate, with reporters averaging a price reaction of positive two point three percent. Industrials led the way with two reporters averaging gains of seven point five percent, and Consumer Defensives held up well too, while Tech ex-semis and Consumer Cyclicals beat but barely moved, which is a good reminder that the market prices in what it already expects. Away from earnings, the bond market was a central theme, with the 30-year at a 19-year high and real questions about whether the Fed has any meaningful lever to pull there, and we also dug into the divergence between hedge funds sitting short the Nasdaq while asset managers are positioned the opposite way. If you want to go deeper on any of the individual names or macro setups from the week, the asset watches, earnings reports, and daily recaps are all there for you, and for more fundamental analysis and options data the tools in the member area are worth a look.
It was a busy week on a lot of fronts. On the earnings side, twelve companies reported and every single one beat expectations, a perfect hundred percent beat rate, with reporters averaging a price reaction of positive two point three percent. Industrials led the way with two reporters averaging gains of seven point five percent, and Consumer Defensives held up well too, while Tech ex-semis and Consumer Cyclicals beat but barely moved, which is a good reminder that the market prices in what it already expects. Away from earnings, the bond market was a central theme, with the 30-year at a 19-year high and real questions about whether the Fed has any meaningful lever to pull there, and we also dug into the divergence between hedge funds sitting short the Nasdaq while asset managers are positioned the opposite way. If you want to go deeper on any of the individual names or macro setups from the week, the asset watches, earnings reports, and daily recaps are all there for you, and for more fundamental analysis and options data the tools in the member area are worth a look.
Asset Watch
Single-name setups worth a look.
Asset Watch: BTC & MSTR · Aug 20
MSTR broke above key resistance, and the weekly BTC structure is looking more bullish than at any point since the November breakdown, so I put together a video walking through the RSI framework I use to distinguish bull from bear markets, the one level MSTR needs to hold on any pullback, the resistance zones still overhead, and where I would consider taking profits on IBIT if the move continues.
Asset Watch: BULL · Aug 20
BULL popped after hours on earnings, and I walked through the chart because it has multiple pattern-based price targets across multiple timeframes, making it a clean example of how to think about layered targets rather than picking a single number.
Asset Watch: MRNA - The First mRNA Cancer Therapy To Pass Phase 3 · Aug 19
Moderna surged more than 135% after it and Merck announced that their personalized mRNA cancer therapy, intismeran autogene, met both primary endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, the first time a personalized mRNA cancer treatment has succeeded at that stage. We had been watching the chart since it formed a double bottom near $22 and flipped its prior consolidation zone into support, though we were not in position before the move.
The Weekly Alpha
The week's flagship posts: the market recap, the live calls, and the watchlist review.
Weekly Trade Recap Outline: 08/17 - 08/21 · Aug 22
This week ran to 12 trades across 11 names, with the main themes being rotation into commodity and chemicals breakout plays in COPX, ALB, and EMN, managing existing positions by closing IBIT and rolling Unity covered calls, and averaging into beaten-down names including GOOGL, JD, TE, LAES, and ENVX. The video also goes deeper on individual copper miners ERO and FCX beyond the basket, and walks through the full thesis on why I am still holding ENVX despite the breakdown.
Weekly Market Prep Zoom Call - 08.17.26 · Aug 17
The market is at a decision point with seasonality and low volume pointing toward more weakness while price structure, breadth, and flows lean bullish, and NDX clearing roughly 30,300 would be the key confirmation to watch. We also covered the incoming 12/22 cross on SMH, software looking extended after its run, and why I am still positioning in a seasonally weak stretch rather than waiting for October, with XAR at the top of the sector rotation list.
Markets & Macro
The bigger picture across rates, commodities, and the tape.
Global Earnings Breadth Just Hit a Five Percent Low · Aug 23
Global earnings breadth just hit a five-percent low, meaning only about one country in twenty is forecast to earn less over the next year than the last, the lowest reading since 2021 and a level historically seen only in 2004 to 2006 and the post-2008 recovery. The MSCI All-Country World Index is up 13.4% year to date and on track for a fourth straight double-digit annual gain, and the breadth data suggests the AI-driven profit cycle is genuinely global rather than concentrated in a handful of names.
Bessent's Buybacks Meet a Bond Market That Isn't Buying It · Aug 21
Scott Bessent doubled Treasury's long-dated buybacks and went on CNBC to talk yields down, but the 10-year is back near 4.7% and the 30-year near 5.25% after giving back almost all of the initial drop. The problem is a two-front fight: oil is up more than 7% on the week after the US promised its toughest-ever Iran sanctions, feeding inflation expectations at exactly the wrong moment, and Walmart's report added another complication that the bond market is watching closely.
The 30-Year Is at a 19-Year High, and the Fed Can't Stop It · Aug 19
The 30-year Treasury is at 5.28%, its highest in 19 years, and the Fed cannot stop it because the Fed only directly controls the overnight rate, which sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. We walked through the full mechanics of how Treasuries work, why the yield curve is steep right now, and why the long end is being driven by inflation expectations and fiscal supply rather than anything the Fed can easily reach.
Also this week
Sector Relative Strength
Week of August 17 · % change vs prior week's close
Biotech (XBI)+5.15%
Oil & Gas E&P (XOP)+4.99%
Healthcare (XLV)+4.20%
Energy (XLE)+2.84%
Materials (XLB)+1.87%
Cons Staples (XLP)-0.12%
Cons Discretionary (XLY)-0.15%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.42%
Software (IGV)-0.68%
Financials (XLF)-1.22%
Comm Services (XLC)-1.37%
Small Caps (IWM)-1.72%
Homebuilders (XHB)-2.49%
Industrials (XLI)-3.15%
Utilities (XLU)-3.48%
Technology (XLK)-3.55%
Regional Banks (KRE)-3.89%
Semiconductors (SMH)-4.66%
S&P 500 (SPY)-1.43%
Equal-weight S&P (RSP)-0.49%
Market Recaps
Every market recap from the week in one place: the daily and morning notes plus the weekly recap.
Wednesday Daily Market Recap - August 19th, 2026
News
The stories that moved names on our radar.
Small Business Hiring Plans Just Made Their Biggest One-Month Jump Since 1985 · Aug 21
Small business hiring plans made their biggest one-month jump since at least 1985 in the NFIB's July survey, with a net 20% of owners planning to add workers, up nine points from June and the highest reading since October 2022. The hard data is still soft, with July payrolls down 23,000 and prior months revised lower, but if the historical three-to-six month lead time holds, that gap should close in the fall, and it fits the picture from recent credit card earnings showing consumer spending still running hot.
Marvell's Google Deal, and Why Broadcom Paid For It · Aug 19
Marvell announced a custom chip partnership with Google structured around a warrant for roughly 59 million shares at $206.58, but almost none of it vests on time alone: the bulk is tied to 240 tranches that unlock for every $500 million of custom product revenue Google sends Marvell, meaning full vesting requires Google to buy roughly $120 billion of silicon through fiscal 2033. Google gets a supplier with a real incentive to keep shipping, Marvell gets a customer with a real incentive to keep ordering, and the structure is a template worth understanding for how hyperscalers are locking in AI chip supply.
The SEC Wrote Crypto Offering Rules While CLARITY Sits Unvoted · Aug 19
The SEC released a roughly 400-page crypto offering proposal called Regulation Crypto Assets, creating two fundraising lanes: a startup exemption allowing $5 million over four years on narrative disclosure alone, and a larger exemption allowing $75 million per year with financial statements and ongoing reporting. Bitcoin ran from near $64,700 to $69,000 on the news, its first time there in two months, close to $2 billion in shorts were liquidated, and the safe harbor provision is the part of the proposal that actually moved the market.
Also this week
Earnings Reports
Every earnings print I covered this week, linked to the full post.
This week we had twelve companies report and every single one of them beat expectations, a perfect hundred percent beat rate for the period. The market received that news reasonably well on average, with reporters seeing a mean price reaction of positive two point three percent, which is a solid outcome even if it was not uniform across the board.
The standout sector this week was Industrials, where two reporters averaged a gain of seven point five percent, and Consumer Defensives were not far behind with three reporters averaging positive three point eight percent. On the weaker end, Tech ex-semis and Consumer Cyclicals both beat across the board but barely moved the needle, averaging gains of just zero point one and zero point five percent respectively, which is a reminder that beating is only half the equation and the market will price in what it already expects.
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